RE: [Epic] Initiative draw (Monty Hall)

From: Kelley, Kevin J., JCS <kevin.kelley_at_...>
Date: Thu, 20 Aug 1998 07:18:36 -0400

This was a TV game show & I think Monty Hall was the name of the MC. BTW
the key is after you picked a door you dont get to see what was behind it -
but it is possible the prize is behind the one of the two unpicked doors
that is revealed. If it is you "lose" the prize.

> ----------
> From: Colen McAlister[SMTP:brother_morgan_at_...]
> Sent: Tuesday, August 18, 1998 1:33 PM
> To: space-marine_at_...
> Subject: Re: [Epic] Initiative draw
>
> One fine day in the middle of the night, Mark A Shieh wrote:
>
> > Nah, it's like the Monty Hall puzzle. The ratio changes, but
> >it doesn't really matter. Say there are 4 chits left, and you draw
> >them in order. Does it really matter if you take the 1st one and then
> >the 2nd one to be used, instead of the 2nd one and the 3rd one? The
> >odds of any one being a particular type are the same no matter which
> >draw you take first.
> >
> >Mark
> >
> >PS- Monty Hall puzzle, for those who aren't familiar, and because I
> >don't think I got the name quite right. There's a big prize behind
> >one of 3 doors. You get to pick a door. You then get to see one of
> >the two you didn't pick, and it's empty. Then, you get the option of
> >changing your choice to the unknown door. Is it worth switching?
> >
> >(Yes, 2/3 chance it's the one with the prize, not 1/2 like I first
> >expected before thinking it through)
>
> Monty Haul, I think.
>
> I don't understand that at all. Could you explain it again, please?
>
> --
> Colen 'Not Colin' McAlister <mailto:brother_morgan_at_...>
> UIN 13168333 <http://surf.to/colen/>
> Thought for the day: IRC EFNet: #babylon5 and #warhammer Op
> "I love the taste of buttered cats in the morning."
>
Received on Thu Aug 20 1998 - 11:18:36 UTC

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