Re: [Epic] Revenants vs. Warhounds

From: Ken Taborek <oberon_at_...>
Date: Tue, 29 Jul 1997 18:40:16 -0400 (EDT)

On Tue, 29 Jul 1997, Erik K. Rutins wrote:

>
> With all this discussion, I thought I'd see what two warhounds and two
> revenants could do to each other in shooting. I'm no statistical
> wizard and I did this in my head, so if I screwed up, let me know.
>
> They have the same range, so we'll assume they open fire at the same
> time. Say the Eldar fire first:
>
> Two revenants = 8 FP and 8 Anti-Tank shots (on average). They'll aim
> at one warhound, which means the FP should take down 1 Void Shield and
> the AT shots should inflict four damage. One warhound gone.
>
> One warhound = 12 FP. Aiming at one Revenant, this means the FP should
> hit 3 times, 50% chance of 1 hit getting through and auto-critting.
> This is pretty much guaranteed to take down the revenant. If the
> revenant rolls a 2-5 and isn't destroyed, the warhound will almost
> certainly die next turn. If not, we're down to 1 vs. 1.

There is one thing to consider here, and I don't have my rules with me, so
I may be wrong, but here it is:
Units in a detachment are fired on as a detachment, and you may not
allocate a second hit to a single unit until all units in the detachment
are allocated a first hit. So, the 3 hits that the Warhounds inflict will
be divided up, 2 on one, and 1 on the other.
The Revenants don't suffer this constraint, as they fire Super Heavy
Weapons, and may pick their targets freely.

Also, your math is a little flawed when it comes to the Revenants ability
to take damage. The 1 hit (~50% chance of occuring) stands very little
chance of actually killing the Revenant. Only an 11-12 is catastrophic
damage, no other result can do more than damage systems and do additional
hits.

You repeat both errors in your analysis below, skewing those results as
well.

Well, you asked me to let you know if you screwed up! If I'm wrong about
the splitting up of regular FP, then the results will be a little better
for the Warhounds, but not enough to give them a fighting chance against
the Revenants.

>
> So if the Eldar fire first, it's likely that they will win the duel,
> but they have around a 40% chance of losing a revenant.
>
> What if the warhounds fire first?
>
> Two warhounds = 24 FP. They'll aim at one revenant, which means the FP
> should hit 6 times. 1 hit should get through the holo-fields and cause
> an automatic critical. This is almost guaranteed to either immobilise
> the revenant and/or take down the holofields (results of 6,7,9 take
> down holofields, 8 immobilises, 10-12 kills). Unless the crit roll is
> a 2-5, the Revenant is pretty clearly toast. Let's assume it bought
> the farm.
>
> One revenant left = 4 FP and 4 Anti-Tank shots. The 4 FP has a 50%
> chance of taking down a void shield, the AT shots should take down both
> Void Shields if the FP failed, or take down the other Void Shield and
> inflict 1 Damage. There's a 1/6 chance that this will be a critical
> and likely hose the Warhound. Very unlikely that this will happen, so
> let's assume that the Revenant takes down two void shields and inflicts
> one damage.
>
> Warhound regenerates a void shield. At this point the other revenant
> will die in the next shooting phase.
>
> So if the Imperials fire first, they should take down both revenants
> with probably only around a 15-20% chance of losing a Warhound.
>
> On the surface, the Warhounds seem to be better than the Revenants.
> However, the Revenants do move slightly faster, which may mean that by
> turn 2 one of the warhounds will be out of arc and the Eldar strategy
> rating means that the Revenants are slightly more likely to shoot
> first, all other things being equal. The main advantage the Warhounds
> have is that they don't generally die if a hit gets through, whereas
> most Revenants will be basically out of commission after one failed
> holo-save. If the Eldar player rolls poorly for Holofields, the
> Revenants will die very quickly. OTOH, excellent rolls can frustrate
> the Warhounds. That's the tough part - the holofields are not truly
> quantifiable since there's always the possibility of some excellent
> rolls on the Eldar's part. The law of averages should kick in sooner
> or later, though, and give the Eldar player his due.
>
> Regards,
>
> - Erik
>
> "Look within. Within is the fountain of good, and it will ever bubble
> up, if you will ever dig."
> - Marcus Aurelius
>


--Ken Taborek oberon_at_...
"Show respect for age. Drink good Scotch for a change."- random fortune
Received on Tue Jul 29 1997 - 22:40:16 UTC